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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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