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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd